Image - Nate Silver and his book cover
San Francisco

Nate Silver: On the Edge

In-person TicketsOnline-only Tickets

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Professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us a lot about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century, says statistician and analyst Nate Silver. He embedded himself within the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman and many others and now comes to Commonwealth Club World Affairs to share insight into a range of issues that affect everyone, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.

In his bestselling book The Signal and the Noise, Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in his riveting new book On the Edge, Silver investigates "The River"—those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape and dominate so much of modern life. The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset—including the flaws in their thinking—is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today.

There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For these people, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale.

Join us in-person or online as Silver takes you behind the scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement


This program has 2 types of tickets available: in-person and online-only. Please pre-register to receive a link to the live-stream event.

If you have symptoms of illness (coughing, fever, etc.), we ask that you either stay home or wear a mask. Our front desk has complimentary masks for members and guests who would like one.

Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California is a nonprofit public forum; we welcome donations made during registration to support the production of our programming.

This program is generously supported by the Jackson Square Partners Foundation.

Jackson Square Partners Foundation

All in-person attendees will receive a copy of On the Edge, compliments of the Ken & Jaclyn Broad Family Fund.

Ken and Jaclyn Broad Family Fund

Photo by Richard Burbridge.

All ticket sales are final and nonrefundable.

Tue, Aug 20 / 6:00 PM PDT

The Commonwealth Club of California
110 The Embarcadero
Taube Family Auditorium
San Francisco, CA 94105
United States

Image - Nate Silver

Nate Silver

Founder, FiveThirtyEight; Author, On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything; X @NateSilver538

Image - DJ Patil

In Conversation with DJ Patil

Former U.S. Chief Data Scientist; General Partner, GreatPoint Ventures; Member, The Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Board of Governors; X @dpatil


5:30 p.m. doors open & check-in
6–7 p.m. program
7 p.m. book signing
(all times Pacific Time)


Members receive 30–50 percent discounts (not a member? Join)

In-person (includes complimentary copy of book):
$45 with a book